The record
is the point.
For opinionated people — the ones with confident takes on how the world is going to play out. The social and competitive layer on top of the world's prediction markets. Every pick scored against real outcomes. Every forecaster ranked. Your track record is the product.
Takes are cheap. Track records are scarce.
Commentary is infinite. Prediction is measurable. Prediction Arena turns the second into a competition and a permanent public record.
How a single pick scores.
Tap YES or NO at the current market price. Your price locks the instant you pick. Nothing the market does afterwards changes your payoff.
A pick is permanent.
No delete button. No redo. Every pick you've ever made adds to a public record that compounds for life.
Your record compounds over time.
Each pick earns an Arena Return — a virtual per-pick score. Sum them across your whole history and you get your Arena Points, the lifetime skill composite that drives your tier and leaderboard spot. Bold correct calls spike it. Wrong calls drag it. Steady consistency stacks up quietly.
Picks live inside games.
A pure scoreboard would be lonely. Games wrap picks with structure — rivals, rounds, seasons, brackets, stakes beyond a number.
Two modes. Same mechanic.
Competitive play and casual play are different products. Friendly rules shouldn't threaten your rank. Competitive finals shouldn't be trivial.
- •Seasonal, open to community
- •Moves your Arena Points and global rank
- •Standardized rules, no house overrides
- •Tournament finals mean something
- •Invite whoever, pick any topic, set house rules
- •Does not affect global rating
- •Casual pick-alongs with your crew
- •Every pick still scored individually
A six-rung ladder.
Rank 847 means different things on a platform of 1k vs. 10M. Tiers anchor identity at any scale — you can be Diamond tomorrow even as we grow.
Everything is filterable.
The best overall forecaster is rarely the best at one domain. Category × Entity tagging lets you rank, follow, and compete on exactly the slice you care about.
Creators bring the audience. Sponsors buy it. The flywheel is the business.
A creator runs a branded season and pulls their followers onto the platform. A sponsor backs that season to put their name in front of the audience the creator already gathered. The creator compounds a track record; the sponsor compounds reach; the platform compounds both. Every host is layering on top of the same underlying mechanic — one scored pick at a time.
Real outcomes. Skill is the scoreboard.
- Source live markets + prices from Polymarket
- Resolve picks against real on-chain outcomes
- Score, rank, and permanently record every pick
- Wrap picks in games, leagues, friends, feeds
- Ranking is skill-only — virtual $1 unit per pick, every player on the same scale
- Optional wagering is a separate layer for people who want to back their picks
- Your skill score never moves with money — cash doesn't climb the leaderboard
- You don't need a trading account. You just need takes.
The scoreboard becomes the source of truth for forecasting skill.
A verified Grand Champion in Crypto is more credible than a million followers.
A Creator with three seasons of documented winners is more trusted than a celebrity tweet.
A friend group running a standing Tournament on AI benchmarks gets to answer who was actually right when the year is over — not in the moment, but in the record.
Prediction markets already exist. What doesn't exist yet is the public, cumulative record of who is actually good at forecasting. That's the layer we're building — and when it becomes the default credibility signal in every vertical that has opinions about the future, this is a very large platform.
The fastest way to understand it is one pick.
Everything on this page is built around the same action — open a market, tap YES or NO.
Looking for reference docs? Open the Help Center →