What we're building & why

The record
is the point.

For opinionated people — the ones with confident takes on how the world is going to play out. The social and competitive layer on top of the world's prediction markets. Every pick scored against real outcomes. Every forecaster ranked. Your track record is the product.

The wedge
Prediction markets are transactional. We are the social layer — people, feeds, friends, creators, and audiences built around forecasting as the shared activity.
What makes it real
Every pick is scored, ranked, and permanent. The record makes the social credible — follows, posts, and trash-talk back by a real forecast track record.
Who plays
Players pick. Creators run branded seasons and pull an audience. Sponsors back seasons to reach that audience. The flywheel is the business.
Where it goes
A verified Grand Champion beats a million followers. The scoreboard becomes the source of truth for who can actually forecast the world.
01 — THESIS

Takes are cheap. Track records are scarce.

Commentary is infinite. Prediction is measurable. Prediction Arena turns the second into a competition and a permanent public record.

0+
Live events
Real
Outcomes
Social
Built around
02 — MECHANIC

How a single pick scores.

Tap YES or NO at the current market price. Your price locks the instant you pick. Nothing the market does afterwards changes your payoff.

Tap a price
live calculator
If correct
+$1.86
1 / 0.35 − 1
If wrong
−$1.00
always fixed
Bold, correct calls pay the most. Wrong calls always cost the same virtual $1. Finding rare events the market mispriced is where real skill shows up.
03 — LIFECYCLE

A pick is permanent.

No delete button. No redo. Every pick you've ever made adds to a public record that compounds for life.

The life of a single pick
T₀Open a Market
Events load with live Polymarket prices
T₁Tap YES or NO
Price captured and locked to your pick
T₂..ₙMarket moves around your pick
Others pick too. Nothing changes your payoff.
T_resReal world resolves
Polymarket resolves on-chain → we score
T∞Pick is permanent record
Arena Return compounds into your Arena Points — your lifetime skill score
04 — RETURN

Your record compounds over time.

Each pick earns an Arena Return — a virtual per-pick score. Sum them across your whole history and you get your Arena Points, the lifetime skill composite that drives your tier and leaderboard spot. Bold correct calls spike it. Wrong calls drag it. Steady consistency stacks up quietly.

Your lifetime Arena Points
illustrative
Picks placed
0
Accuracy
0%
Arena return
+0.21
05 — GAMES

Picks live inside games.

A pure scoreboard would be lonely. Games wrap picks with structure — rivals, rounds, seasons, brackets, stakes beyond a number.

Season
season
Long, often auto-renewing. A year-long forecast league.
Tournament
tournament
Elimination brackets. Last standing wins.
Match
match
Short 1–3 round duels. Quick head-to-heads.
06 — MODES

Two modes. Same mechanic.

Competitive play and casual play are different products. Friendly rules shouldn't threaten your rank. Competitive finals shouldn't be trivial.

Competitive
Competitive
  • Seasonal, open to community
  • Moves your Arena Points and global rank
  • Standardized rules, no house overrides
  • Tournament finals mean something
Friendly
Friendly
  • Invite whoever, pick any topic, set house rules
  • Does not affect global rating
  • Casual pick-alongs with your crew
  • Every pick still scored individually
07 — TIERS

A six-rung ladder.

Rank 847 means different things on a platform of 1k vs. 10M. Tiers anchor identity at any scale — you can be Diamond tomorrow even as we grow.

Hover a tier
Grand Champion2000
Diamond9002000
Platinum400900
Gold150400
Silver50150
Bronze050
Ranges approximate — tiers evolve with platform scale. Consistency and difficulty of the Events you pick on factor in alongside cumulative return.
08 — TAGS

Everything is filterable.

The best overall forecaster is rarely the best at one domain. Category × Entity tagging lets you rank, follow, and compete on exactly the slice you care about.

Category × Entity — pick what you care about
US
Bitcoin
Lakers
OpenAI
Politics
Crypto
Sports
Tech
Every Event is tagged across the category tree and entity graph. Filter the whole platform — games, leaderboards, your profile — by any slice of it.
09 — HOSTS

Creators bring the audience. Sponsors buy it. The flywheel is the business.

A creator runs a branded season and pulls their followers onto the platform. A sponsor backs that season to put their name in front of the audience the creator already gathered. The creator compounds a track record; the sponsor compounds reach; the platform compounds both. Every host is layering on top of the same underlying mechanic — one scored pick at a time.

Creator
Creators build the audience
Individual hosts — analysts, personalities, power-users — who run their own branded seasons and bring followers with them. The more skill and consistency they show, the larger the audience they compound.
own your brandset the scoperenew seasonsgrow a following
Sponsor
Sponsors buy the audience
Companies and brands that want reach. They back seasons — sometimes their own, more often a creator's — to put their name in front of an engaged audience the platform and the creator already built.
branded prize pooldiscovery boostseason partnershipaudience cross-over
10 — DATA

Real outcomes. Skill is the scoreboard.

What we do
  • Source live markets + prices from Polymarket
  • Resolve picks against real on-chain outcomes
  • Score, rank, and permanently record every pick
  • Wrap picks in games, leagues, friends, feeds
Skill vs. stake
  • Ranking is skill-only — virtual $1 unit per pick, every player on the same scale
  • Optional wagering is a separate layer for people who want to back their picks
  • Your skill score never moves with money — cash doesn't climb the leaderboard
  • You don't need a trading account. You just need takes.
11 — VISION

The scoreboard becomes the source of truth for forecasting skill.

A verified Grand Champion in Crypto is more credible than a million followers.

A Creator with three seasons of documented winners is more trusted than a celebrity tweet.

A friend group running a standing Tournament on AI benchmarks gets to answer who was actually right when the year is over — not in the moment, but in the record.

Prediction markets already exist. What doesn't exist yet is the public, cumulative record of who is actually good at forecasting. That's the layer we're building — and when it becomes the default credibility signal in every vertical that has opinions about the future, this is a very large platform.

The fastest way to understand it is one pick.

Everything on this page is built around the same action — open a market, tap YES or NO.

Looking for reference docs? Open the Help Center →