Every page, every feature

Prediction Arena is a competition platform built on top of live prediction-market data. It's for opinionated people — the ones with confident takes on how the world is going to play out. You don't need a trading account; you just need takes. Every pick is a single virtual $1 unit on a real Event, resolved by what actually happens. Correct picks earn an Arena Return based on the odds at the moment you picked. Wrong picks cost $1. Ranking is skill-only; your track record grows for life. Optional wagering is available as a separate layer for anyone who wants to back their picks with real money — it never touches the skill scoreboard.

If you've just signed up and want the fastest orientation: open Markets, pick any Event that interests you, and watch how the Pick confirmation works. That single flow teaches you 70% of the product. Once you understand one pick, you already understand the rest — Games just bundle picks into rounds, and the Leaderboard just ranks the lifetime sums.

For a structured walkthrough, launch the tour below — it'll take about two minutes and cover the main navigation.

Markets and Events are the two building blocks of the product. A Market is a broad question with many possible outcomes — e.g. Who will win the 2028 Presidential Election?. An Event is a single YES/NO question inside a Market, with its own live price — e.g. Will JD Vance win?. You make picks on Events, not Markets. A single Market can contain anywhere from a few to hundreds of Events.

The Markets page has two tabs:

Active Markets

Live markets where the underlying Event has not yet resolved. Prices update continuously as new information arrives. This is where you browse, filter, and make picks. The Active tab uses green as its active-state indicator (signal for “live”).

Resolved Markets

Everything that has already settled — outcomes locked in, scoring finalized. A useful surface for studying past events and your own past picks. The Resolved tab uses red (signal for “closed”).

Classification

Every Market is classified four levels deep. L1 is a top-level category (Politics & Elections, Sports, Crypto, Finance, Technology, Culture, Science, Geopolitics). L2 is a sub-category (US Politics, Soccer, Central Banks). L3 is the specific context (2028 Presidential Election, World Cup, Fed Rate Decisions). Every Event is also tagged with the specific entities involved: people, teams, companies, countries, assets, shows, tokens.

That structure is what powers filtering, per-category leaderboards, the “best at” breakdowns on your profile, and the recommendation logic for games.

Placing a pick is deliberately simple: open any Event, tap Yes or No at the current price, confirm. The confirmation slide-in shows you the exact price captured at that instant — every pick locks the odds at the timestamp of placement, so later price movements don't retroactively change what you earn or lose.

Picks you make outside a specific Game are called Open Picks — they count toward your lifetime Arena Points and your global rank. Picks inside a Game additionally score that game's round. The same pick can be stacked across multiple games if it qualifies for each game's rules — you score it once for each game independently, plus once for Open Picks.

The full formula and examples live in the Arena Return section below.

A Game is a multi-round competition. Each round every player picks on the same set of Events. Scores are summed across rounds. At the end there's a winner. Games are defined by two independent axes — mode (who's playing and whether it counts) and format (how the timeline is structured).

Three modes

Three formats

Mode and format are independent — a Friendly Tournament is just as valid as a Competitive Season. The color of the pill on a game card tells you both at a glance: the mode pill (rounded rectangle) and the format badge (hexagon) sit side-by-side so you read both in one flick.

Browse Games is the discovery surface for joining games. The controls at the top narrow the list:

Mode tabs — All · Competitive · Friendly · Creator. Clicking one filters to just that mode.

Format chips — Season · Tournament · Match. Each chip picks up its own color when active (teal · violet · pink), the same colors you'll see on the row badges below.

Categories in game — a bordered panel listing the L1 categories that have active games right now. Clicking one filters the list to games on that category. Games created with tighter L2/L3 subcategories will surface those under each row as a “Subcategories: …” line.

Each row uses fixed columns — name on the left, then Game Mode, Game Type, and the Join/View button on the right — so the badges line up consistently as you scroll. The row footer shows round progress, players, category chips, and when the join window closes.

My Games is where your active and past games live. The sub-sub-nav under it has three chips:

Dashboard

Overview of everything in flight — current round deadlines, picks still owed, recent results. The default landing tab.

Competitive

Only your Competitive games. Tinted indigo. Rating-bearing and the stats page here shows your competitive-only splits.

Friendly

Only your Friendly games. Tinted amber. Same layout as Competitive, but rows are clearly marked Friendly and not included in your Arena Points rollups.

The Create Game flow walks you through five steps: pick a mode, pick a format, pick categories/entities (what kind of Events the game pulls from), configure rules (rounds, picks per round, deadlines), and review.

The category step supports all three tiers. You can pick an L1 to keep it broad, or drill into L2/L3 to narrow down — e.g. “2028 Presidential Election” as an L3 means only Events inside that election feed your game. You can also add entity filters to include or exclude specific people/teams/assets. If your mode is Creator, the flow additionally captures branding for the season.

The persistent + Create Game CTA in the Games sub-nav inherits the color of the tab you're on — indigo on Competitive, amber on Friendly, sky on Creator — and passes the mode through as a query param so you land on the right starting preset.

Your Picks page is the source of truth for every prediction you've ever made. Each row lists the Event, the side you picked (Yes/No), the price captured at pick time, the game it belongs to (if any), whether it's resolved, and the Arena Return it produced.

Picks are split into Open (not yet resolved) and Resolved. Both count toward your lifetime stats once they settle. Stacked picks — the same pick counted in multiple games — show one row per game so you can see the full accounting.

Arena Points are the skill half of scoring and the number that drives your leaderboard position. Every pick is a virtual $1 wager at the captured price — that per-pick number is called your Arena Return. If you're right you earn (1 / price) − 1. If you're wrong you lose $1. That asymmetry is the point: bold correct calls pay big, safer correct calls pay modestly, wrong calls all cost the same.

Your lifetime Arena Points roll up every pick's Arena Return across Open Picks and Competitive game picks, with calibration, consistency, and sample strength folded in so a small lucky streak can't lap a player who's been grinding for months. Arena Points also break down by category and entity — your NBA Arena Points are a separate line from your Politics Arena Points, and the leaderboard lets you filter to see specialists. Friendly game picks score individually (so you can see how you did) but don't roll into your global Arena Points.

Prediction Points are a separate, additive XP-style number that measures how much you play, not how well. Even if your picks go badly, you still earn Prediction Points just for showing up. That's deliberate: skill takes time to build; activity is instant and should be rewarded.

Prediction Points live on your profile as a parallel track to Arena Points, broken down by the same categories and entities so your activity mix and your skill mix line up one-to-one. They fuel cosmetics and unlock badges over time, and — most importantly — they gate tier placement: each tier has a minimum Prediction Points requirement on top of its Arena Points range. A lucky small-sample player can't vault Diamond on twenty picks; you have to put the reps in.

Friendly games don't earn Prediction Points. Friendly is its own relaxed track with custom rules; keeping it separate means no one can farm low-effort Friendly picks to inflate their Competitive standing. Open Picks and any Competitive / Creator / Sponsor game all count.

The Leaderboard ranks players globally by Arena Points — the skill composite — across Open Picks and Competitive game picks. You can filter by L1 category to see specialists (the top forecaster in Politics is not necessarily the top forecaster in Crypto), and every row also shows Prediction Points so you can see activity alongside skill.

Your position on that leaderboard is your Arena Points ranking. On top of the raw number, every player has a tier — a visual badge reflecting sustained performance. Each tier has a minimum Prediction Points requirement as well as an Arena Points range, so you can't vault into a higher tier on a handful of lucky picks:

Ranges are approximate and evolve as the platform grows. Tiers aren't just cumulative return — consistency, activity (the Prediction Points gate), and strength-of-schedule factor in.

Your Skill Report Card is a deeper analytic of your forecasting quality. Arena Points tell you “how good are you”; the Report Card tells you why.

It surfaces your Arena Points (the composite that drives your leaderboard rank), your Brier score (raw forecasting error), Wilson-CI accuracy bounds (how confident we can be about the raw accuracy number given your sample size), a calibration chart (do you actually go 7-for-10 on 70% picks?), and your Prediction Points total so you can see skill and activity side by side.

Useful for understanding whether strong Arena Points came from real skill, luck, or an opportunistic market — and where to focus next.

Social is the live activity stream for everyone you follow, plus community-wide trending moments — hot picks, big resolutions, leaderboard climbers. This is where the product feels social instead of solo.

The Social sub-nav has three tabs: Home (the activity stream), People (friends/following/followers), and Messages. Each is covered in its own section below.

People is the relationships hub. It replaced the old “Friends” tab because it covers more than just friends — it covers everyone you're connected to in any direction.

Friends — mutual, bidirectional connections. Send a request from any profile; once accepted you see each other's picks in the Feed and can open a DM. Following — accounts whose public picks show up in your stream. Following is one-way and doesn't require approval. Followers — people who are following you.

The page also has a Find People search that queries usernames, display names, and recent activity — handy for pulling someone in before a game starts.

Messages holds direct messages and group chats. You can share any Market, Event, Game, or Pick as a rich card inside a conversation — the card renders with live price and a tap-through to the source.

Group chats are useful for running a pick-along with a squad while a game is in flight. Soft-delete with a 30-day trash period means you can always recover a thread you accidentally dismissed.

The chat widget is also available as a floating button in the bottom-right corner on every page — tap it to open the most recent conversation without leaving what you're doing.

Your Profile is your public face on the platform. Your avatar, display name, bio, tier badge, lifetime Arena Points, Prediction Points, accuracy, category specialization, and a reverse-chronological feed of recent resolved picks.

Other players land here when they tap your name anywhere on the site. The social counts (Friends / Followers / Following) are direct links into the People page, already filtered to the appropriate tab.

A link on your own profile drops you into the Skill Report Card for the deeper analytic view.

The bell icon in the top nav shows unread notifications. Tap any row to jump to its source — a resolved pick lands on the Picks tab; a friend request lands on your People page; a game invite lands on the game.

Notifications are delivered in real time — the bell flips to unread within a second of the event. A dedicated All Notifications page lists the full history beyond what fits in the dropdown, with filters by type.

Notification types include: pick resolved, friend request / accepted, game invite / join, round start, round deadline, creator-season milestones, and system announcements.

Creator Mode lets you host branded Competitive seasons. Anyone can sign up as a Creator — there's no gatekeeping. The Creator sub-tabs (Dashboard / About → Help) surface your active seasons, past winners, community growth, and the controls for setting up the next season.

Good Creators build real reputations over time. Your Creator profile is discoverable from Browse Games's Creator mode filter, and every game you run stamps your brand on every card.

When you're ready, flip the Creator toggle in settings — the “+ Create Game” CTA will go sky-blue on creator surfaces and route you into a creator-flavored version of the create flow.

Sponsors is the marketplace for brands, communities, and creators to back specific seasons or games. Sponsorships layer on top of an existing game — they add branding, prize pools, and discoverability without changing how the game plays.

The Sponsors sub-nav has Dashboard (your sponsorships and their performance) and About → Help (explainer docs — becomes a Help tab once you're an approved sponsor). The + New Sponsorship CTA uses the sponsor color (fuchsia) and steps you through selecting a game, a brand, and a prize structure.

Dashboard is the signed-in home screen. It shows a greeting, four quick stats (Active Games / Pending Picks / Streak / Arena Points), any games that need picks from you right now, a recent-activity list (unread notifications plus recent picks), and four quick-link tiles into Markets / Create / Find People / Messages.

Think of it as a compressed version of the Notifications + My Games + Feed surfaces, designed so you can orient yourself in about five seconds and jump to whatever needs attention.

The Search button in the top nav opens a global search over Markets, Events, people, and games. Results are grouped and ranked by relevance. Tap Enter on any row to open it directly.

Keyboard shortcut: ⌘K (or Ctrl+K) toggles the search overlay from anywhere on the site — no need to mouse to the button.

Each page also has local filtering inside the page — e.g. Markets has category + entity chips, Picks has a status filter, Leaderboard has category selectors. Use global search for cross-surface navigation, local filters for drilling into one surface.

Settings is where you manage display name, username, avatar, bio, contact preferences, creator/sponsor enablement, connected integrations, and account security.

Avatar uploads are stored on our media bucket and surface everywhere your profile shows up — top-nav chip, profile page, pick cards, chat bubbles. Display-name changes propagate immediately; username changes (the @handle) are rate-limited to discourage impersonation.

You can also toggle notification categories, email digest frequency, and privacy controls (who can send you friend requests, whether your picks appear in the public feed, etc.).

Skill is the scoreboard. Every pick uses a virtual $1 unit so the leaderboard ranks insight, not bankroll — everyone on the same scale. Optional wagering exists as a separate track for anyone who wants to back their picks with real money, and it does not climb the skill leaderboard: a wagered win doesn't outrank a virtual win at the same skill level.

Data source. Every Market, Event, and live price on Prediction Arena is sourced from Polymarket, the largest prediction market in the world. When a real-world Event resolves, the on-chain resolution flows through to our scoring engine within minutes. We don't operate the underlying markets, set the odds, or resolve outcomes — we build the social gaming layer on top. That separation is deliberate: the prices reflect what the market actually thinks will happen, and the scoring is anchored to auditable outcomes rather than opinion.

Fair play. Picks lock odds at the timestamp of placement, so no amount of price manipulation after the fact can change what you earned or lost. Suspicious activity (coordinated voting, multi-accounting, pick-scraping bots) is flagged automatically and reviewed manually. If you spot something off, use the Contact page.